For Risk Analysts ·
What you'll accomplish
A scenario library that would normally take days to compile (20-40 stress scenarios across your key risk domains) is ready in under an hour. You'll have it built and organized for your next stress testing cycle, risk committee discussion, or contingency planning session.
What you'll need
I'm a risk analyst at a [regional bank / mid-size insurance company / corporate treasury function]. Key characteristics: [size, geography, business lines, key exposures]. I need to build a scenario library for [stress testing / risk committee / business continuity planning].
Press Enter to set the context, then proceed to the scenario generation.
For each risk domain, use this prompt structure:
Generate 8 stress scenarios for [risk domain, e.g. credit risk / operational risk / liquidity risk] for our organization. For each scenario include:
- Scenario name (2-4 words)
- Narrative description (3-4 sentences)
- Severity: Moderate / Severe / Extreme
- Speed of onset: Sudden / Gradual
- Key transmission channels (how does this affect us specifically?)
- Early warning indicators to monitor
- Primary business lines / portfolios affected
Ask for scenarios in order from most likely to least likely. This is useful for prioritization.
These are required by many regulators and often overlooked:
Now generate 3 reverse stress scenarios: scenarios that would threaten the viability of our organization. Work backward from organizational failure to identify what combination of events could cause it.
After generating all domains:
Summarize all the scenarios we've discussed in a table: Scenario Name | Risk Domain | Severity | Speed of Onset | Primary Affected Areas | Key Monitoring Indicator
Copy this table into Excel, it becomes your scenario register.
Select 3-5 of the most relevant scenarios and ask for expanded narratives:
Expand scenario [name] with a full narrative suitable for a stress testing document: quarter-by-quarter timeline of events, quantitative assumptions I should consider, regulatory precedents for this type of scenario, and assumptions I'd need to make to model it.
What you should see: Detailed scenario narratives with timeline, assumptions, and data points you can use to parameterize your models
Troubleshooting: If scenarios feel generic, add more organizational specifics: your top 3 industry concentrations, geographic markets, key revenue streams, or dependencies on specific vendors or counterparties
1. Single risk domain library:
Generate 8 scenarios for [risk domain] at a [org type]. Include name, narrative, severity, speed of onset, transmission channels, and early warning indicators.
2. Cyber/operational risk scenarios:
Generate 6 cyber risk scenarios for [org type], ranging from data breach to ransomware to third-party system failure. Include estimated recovery time and financial impact range.
3. Reverse stress scenarios:
Generate 3 reverse stress scenarios that would threaten our viability. Work backward from organizational failure.
4. Regulatory scenario alignment:
Map our existing scenarios to [DFAST / CCAR / ICAAP / ORSA] requirements. Are we missing any required scenario types?
5. Narrative expansion:
Expand [scenario name] with a quarter-by-quarter timeline, quantitative assumptions, and data points needed to model it.